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The U.S. Treasury Could Run Out of Cash in September

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By John McDonald The U.S. Treasury could run short on cash before Congress reconvenes in September if the legislature fails to raise the debt ceiling before Congress leaves for the end-of-summer recess.  Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin wrote a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi mid-July, warning, “Based on updated projections, there is a scenario in which we run out of cash in early September, before Congress reconvenes.” Mnuchin is hoping his letter will spark a spirit of cooperation between the left and right sides of the aisle so that the White House does not have to offer a one-year continuing...

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President Labels Fed the United States’ “Most Difficult Problem”

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By John McDonald President Trump is not known for making a secret of his opinions on how various facets of the federal government operates. It is one of the things his supporters love most about him and one of the things his critics find most distasteful.  Perhaps among the most-covered commentary when it comes to presidential critiques of federal entities is the president’s outspoken criticism of the Federal Reserve.  For everyone who dislikes the current monetary policies in the United States, President Trump’s ongoing attacks on Fed policy certainly fit the bill. Recently, the president tackled Fed policies in the...

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Key Recession Indicator Hits Highest Levels Since 2009

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By John McDonald The New York Federal Reserve’s probability model, which the Fed uses to predict the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months, hit a reading not seen since 2009 this past June.  The reading, 32.9 percent, might not seem that high at first. However, every recession since 1960 has been preceded by the model breaching the 30 percent threshold. Feel like the measure probably has a way to go before things get serious? Think again. The most recent recession never weighed in anywhere near what most people believe is a sure thing:...

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The Mysterious “Whale” Buying Up Silver

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By John McDonald Silver investors have spent much of the summer disappointed thanks to what they consider “underperformance” in light of gold’s recent rally and general bullish trend. Silver is generally more volatile than gold, rising higher than the precious yellow metal when gold is on a rally and falling farther and faster when values retreat. However, silver is not “behaving” as it should this time around. In fact, while gold has steadily risen by about 11 percent since last December, silver has actually fallen slightly. Conventional wisdom would have expected a 20 percent silver rally with gold up by...

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Russia Continues to Add to Gold Reserves

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By John McDonald The Russian central bank has been investing heavily in gold this summer, adding 6 tonnes of the precious metal to its reserves in May 2019. This put the country’s total gold holdings at nearly 2,200 tonnes as of June 1, 2019, up by 0.3 percent in May. Russia has added 77 tonnes to its gold reserves since the beginning of this year. About 40 percent of that was purchased this past February. The country’s central bank is not hiding its activities. In fact, it released information about its latest acquisition via a press release shortly after the...

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