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News — stocks

Key Recession Indicator Hits Highest Levels Since 2009

Posted by Metals Corporate on

By John McDonald The New York Federal Reserve’s probability model, which the Fed uses to predict the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months, hit a reading not seen since 2009 this past June.  The reading, 32.9 percent, might not seem that high at first. However, every recession since 1960 has been preceded by the model breaching the 30 percent threshold. Feel like the measure probably has a way to go before things get serious? Think again. The most recent recession never weighed in anywhere near what most people believe is a sure thing:...

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Morgan Stanley’s Market Bear Forecasts a Grim 2019

Posted by Metals Corporate on

By John McDonald The man widely considered to be “Wall Street’s most bearish analyst” says 2019 is shaping up just as he predicted, and that means big risks for investors in the markets. Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson recently described the U.S. economy as “running on fumes,” despite recent upward surges in the stock market. “The macro and microeconomic data continue to deteriorate,” Wilson wrote, citing soft jobs numbers, soft retail earnings, and overall soft metrics. He added investors counting on the Fed to lower interest rates and keep the economic cycle spiraling upward are making a mistake....

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