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News — nyse

Key Recession Indicator Hits Highest Levels Since 2009

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By John McDonald The New York Federal Reserve’s probability model, which the Fed uses to predict the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months, hit a reading not seen since 2009 this past June.  The reading, 32.9 percent, might not seem that high at first. However, every recession since 1960 has been preceded by the model breaching the 30 percent threshold. Feel like the measure probably has a way to go before things get serious? Think again. The most recent recession never weighed in anywhere near what most people believe is a sure thing:...

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As Private Equity Funds Get Bigger, They May Be Less Likely to Deliver

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By John McDonald Private equity funds are getting bigger and bigger, capable of raising larger and large amounts of capital. Unfortunately, just because a fund is setting records for equity raises does not mean it is going to be a successful venture for investors.  According to the Wall Street Journal, “megafunds” of $10 billion or more have performed only “roughly in line with the S&P 500” rather than exceeding that market’s performance, as one would expect. Private equity funds have a historical reputation for returns closer to 20 percent and higher rather than just barely over 14 percent, as the...

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