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News — key indicator

Key Recession Indicator Hits Highest Levels Since 2009

Posted by Metals Corporate on

By John McDonald The New York Federal Reserve’s probability model, which the Fed uses to predict the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months, hit a reading not seen since 2009 this past June.  The reading, 32.9 percent, might not seem that high at first. However, every recession since 1960 has been preceded by the model breaching the 30 percent threshold. Feel like the measure probably has a way to go before things get serious? Think again. The most recent recession never weighed in anywhere near what most people believe is a sure thing:...

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